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Zeszyt 4 (46) 2017 , DOI: 10.17306/J.JARD.2017.00352

Rangarirai Roy Shoko, Abenet Belete

EFFICIENT PLANNING OF SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICA – APPLICATION OF THE BOX-JENKIN’S METHOD

Abstract:

Estimation and forecasting of crop production are
crucial in supporting policy decisions regarding food security
and development issues. The present study examines the current
status of sorghum production in South Africa. Univariate
time series modelling using ARIMA model was developed for
forecasting sorghum production. Box and Jenkins linear time
series model, which involves autoregression, moving average,
and integration, also known as ARIMA (p, d, q) model
was applied. The annual production series of sorghum from
1960 to 2014 exhibited a decreasing trend while prediction
of sorghum production between 2017 and 2020 showed an
increasing trend. The study has shown that the best-fitted
model for sorghum production series is ARMA (1, 0, 4). The
model revealed a good performance in terms of explaining
variability and forecasting power. This study has also shown
that sorghum could contribute to the household and national
food security because of its drought-tolerant properties.

Słowa kluczowe: ARIMA, sorghum production, forecasting, South Africa

PDF in angielskim Publikacja w języku angielskim w formacie Adobe Acrobat:
www.jard.edu.pl/tom46/zeszyt4/art_82.pdf
http://dx.doi.org/10.17306/J.JARD.2017.00352
Zapis do cytowania:

MLA Shoko, Rangarirai Roy, and Abenet Belete. "EFFICIENT PLANNING OF SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICA – APPLICATION OF THE BOX-JENKIN’S METHOD." J. Agribus. Rural Dev. 46.4 (2017): 835-841.
APA Rangarirai Roy Shoko, Abenet Belete (2017). EFFICIENT PLANNING OF SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICA – APPLICATION OF THE BOX-JENKIN’S METHOD. J. Agribus. Rural Dev. 46 (4), 835-841
ISO 690 SHOKO, Rangarirai Roy, BELETE, Abenet. EFFICIENT PLANNING OF SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICA – APPLICATION OF THE BOX-JENKIN’S METHOD. J. Agribus. Rural Dev., 2017, 46.4: 835-841.
Adres do korespondencji:
MSc, Rangarirai Roy Shoko, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Limpopo, Private Bag X1106 Sovenga 0727, South Africa,
Email do korespondencji:
rangariraishoko@yahoo.com

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